Issue The defeat that proves the favourite tag

As told by Michael Wood

Bradford City were – and in some cases still are – the favourites to win League Two although the 3-1 defeat at Shrewsbury Town has dampened expectations.

Football supporters have a love of “the odds” which denies their purpose. Odds are a commercial thing designed to attract bets and are driven by financial concerns. If every Bradford City fan were to go to the bookies and put £10 on Accrington Stanley winning League Two then the 100/1 offered now would plummet as bookmakers looked to cover the liabilities resulting from such an Accy win. Those falling odds – however – would not mean the Lancashire club were any more likely to win the league.

Odds are not probability and while there is a correlation of sorts between the two odds are financially driven and rise and fall on the basis of the money bet. In short – and on the whole – City were favourites because people bet on them.

So one must ask why this is the case. Why did the Bantams attract a chunk of the money in League Two along with the relegated clubs and play-off losers like Rotherham United? Has the signing of a few players called Tom and Tommy and Lewis and Louis really turned the squad around that much?

Certainly the crowd size – and an assumption that it comes with increased resources – attracts some interest in the club and the name has resonance but on the whole – and looking at the betting previews – then one name crops up in the previews and that name is Peter Taylor.

The City manager is the headline on Betfair saying “For a team that finished below halfway last season to be at the head of the market to win League Two this term shows just how highly Bradford manager Peter Taylor is rated.”

Taylor causes the bets, so the odds fall and City become favourites.

Watching his City side concede two in six minutes which took the draw and made it a defeat on Saturday Taylor could not hide his disappointment nor did he feel the need to avoid pointing fingers. Taylor was clear that when a five seven striker wins a header in the box it is the job of the “big men who are there to get it away” to have cleared – scorer Jake Robinson is a foot shorter than Luke Oliver – and when Robinson ran between an ocean liner sized gap Oliver and Steve Williams the manager made it clear that the defenders should have played better.

For a man who has been coaching clubs for over two decades the problems were obvious – indeed they were obvious to most – and they were down to performance and specifically the performance in the second half which fell short of the achievements of the first. Taylor in unequivocal in his approach to fixing the problem: The players have to play consistently well.

Which is why Taylor brings bets and why City became favourites. As a manager it is perceived he has been around enough to know how to win games and why they are lost. If your defenders leave gaps that big between them then you will be beaten and the fact that he is able to be unwavering in that analysis so early in the season is part of the abilities which impress people.

While City fans might knash the teeth and fret about the future Taylor will take City on to the next forty-five games with the same approach as he took then to Shrewsbury. Do it properly and you will do well, switch off at half time and you will get beat.

So when City lose 3-1 and Taylor comes out after the game to give his frank (and accurate) assessment of why the game was lost and how it could have been won it does not put off the gambling man but rather reaffirms the reason he put his money on Taylor in the first place.