Bradford City, Brentford away and conformational bias

The Team

Jon McLaughlin | Stephen Darby, Rory McArdle, Carl McHugh, Matthew Bates | Kyle Bennett, Gary Jones, Chris Parkinson, Nathan Doyle, Adam Reach | Aaron McLean | Gary Thompson, Andy Gray, Adam Drury

The words we are looking for are “conformational bias”.

You know how when you look at your watch and it is always 11:11 except it is not always 11:11, it’s just that you only remember the times you look at your watch (well, phone) is when it reads 11:11 and you forget all the other times you look at your watch (well, phone). That is conformational bias. We remember the times that support our hypothesis and forget the ones which do not.

(By the way Uri Geller believes that it is always 11:11 and has lots of very curious ideas on the subject which prove nothing at all and are basically confirmations of conformational bias)

Being a Bradford City supporter at the moment is to be judging between (at least) two different conformational bias. Phil Parkinson’s team are not performing as well this season as they did last season and a 2-0 defeat at Brentford is seen as confirmation that Parkinson is not good enough or it is not because a team in City’s position would not expect to go to a promotion chaser and win is seen as contradicting that and is thus ignored.

Likewise the two wins in a week were confirmation that Parkinson was “the man for the job.”

A lifeless first half in which neither side threatened goal much was a confirmation of how canny Parkinson was to keep things tight and try steal a point from a team which ends the day third but the fact that City were unable to do that because of second half goals from the generally annoying Clayton Donaldson and George Saville shows how limited Parkinson’s plan is.

Without James Hanson up front and Andrew Davies at the back against a team in good form the afternoon always seemed beyond the visitors and again one is stuck between scenarios as to why. Parkinson gave up the game and rested his two players because even his full strength side would struggle on the one hand and that is the smart thing to do on the one hand. On the other Parkinson’s side’s failings are his failings and depth of squad is squarely amongst those failing.

It does seem like the team that finished seventh last season/the team that went to Wembley twice – pick your own description to continue the theme of this article – have reached a plateau. While Brentford trooped off at half time unimpressive it never looked like the area between Carl McHugh and Matthew Bates would not afford Donaldson a chance during the afternoon and so it did when Donaldson drove in low. Only his proficiency stopping him adding another later but Saville gave the scoreline a perhaps undeserved polish. The Londoners edged most things on the day – but not by much – although Will Grigg and Adam Forshaw provided everything a League One midfield needed to go twenty two games with only a single defeat or twenty three games with two, if you are that way inclined.

City’s midfield is the start of the limits that Parkinson faces by by no means the end of the. Gary Jones has made a virtue out of the level of dedication he puts into all things and he will know more than anyone that the number of games he has at League One level is limited but – in my never humble opinion – he remains value for his place on his performance and the energy he puts into it which one only wishes was matched by Nathan Doyle. Doyle displays last year were excellent but that has been the exception in a career which has seen him more often than not fall below the standards he reaches on his better days on too many of his days. Doyle can play better, and has often, and to be a reliable part of Parkinson’s team next season he has to.

Kyle Bennett remains a mystery to me, Adam Reach continues to let how impressive he is one moment stop him impressing the next. Aaron McLean works hard and for that he will remain in Parkinson’s side because Parkinson prizes that above all else.

And if one agrees with that philosophy then a defeat like today is just a part of the grind. The fact that the club will shake itself off and go to the more winnable game at Colchester with more fit players is confirmation that the manager knows what he is doing. Looking at the table City have twelve games left to play and need as many points to reach fifty three which would guarantee safety. That simply requires Parkinson’s side to score points at the same rate that it has all season.

If one does agree with the hard working philosophy (or perhaps does not agree with something else that sets one to suggest that Parkinson is doing something wrong) then it is unacceptable not because it is a defeat but because all defeats highlight problems because it offers confirmation that there is a problem.

So one is left to decide if retaining a place in League One for next season represents progress or a problem.

Clayton Donaldson and Bradford City: head vs heart

To the unobserved, the battle to secure League Two hotshot Clayton Donaldson’s signature would place Bradford City as rank outsiders. Championship outfit Coventry City, newly-promoted to League One Chesterfield and moneybags league newcomers Crawley Town are among a host of clubs said to be chasing the 29-goal striker; and so the appeal of a failing League Two side which has recently struggled to pay their players would seem limited.

Yet the Bantams have an emotional attraction to Donaldson that no other interested party can match, and newly confirmed manager Peter Jackson is hoping romanticism can override career progression or opulence in swaying Donaldson to head to Valley Parade. Born in Manningham and having grown up in the youth set-up until being shown the door at 15, Bradford City has one distinct advantage over all the other clubs trying to secure his signature – he has actually dreamed of playing for them.

But will that be enough? The psyche of a footballer is one we supporters regularly struggle to understand. While we will all have shared childhood afflictions of wanting to play for our football club, somewhere along the line that passion for one team seems to disappear in professional footballers and an outlook that a club is an employer, rather than an institution, takes over.

Sure we supporters, in our own careers, can sometimes hold a special affection for our employers and be loyal enough not to move on, but a job is a job and ultimately it’s up to our employer to keep us happy or we’ll get itchy feet. Many footballers seemingly view clubs in a similar way.

Yes, it’s a privileged career and most decent footballers know and appreciate that, but one can imagine the sort of frustrations we have with our own jobs and employers being replicated by players: “The wages are rubbish compared to what we could be earning elsewhere”, “I hate the boss”, “I’m sick of how we’re treated.” However special it is to play football, it is, at the end of the day, their job.

So footballers who have gone onto truly live those childhood ambitions of becoming heroes for their club are few and far between. Wayne Rooney still talks of being an Everton supporter, but didn’t stick around at Goodison Park for very long. It’s difficult to argue with his reasoning either, as he prepares to take part in his third Champions League final for Manchester United this evening. But as he hopes to score the winning goal against Barcelona, who’s to say he didn’t harbour childhood dreams of playing in the European Cup final for Everton?

Meanwhile Steven Gerrard, Liverpool born and bred, continues to play for his underachieving team. He’s had some tempting offers to move on in the past and came close to doing so, but he’s forgone career progression and trophies to continue flying the flag for Liverpool – at times truly appearing as though he is walking alone with a bunch of average team mates. His had a great career for sure, but somehow the fact he’s arguably the finest English midfielder of the past decade isn’t widely recognised because he’s not at the summit of his sport. These days he doesn’t even get to play in the Champions League.

Does Gerrard care? Probably, but playing for his beloved team is more important to him.

But it’s not just about who you grew up supporting. Stuart McCall didn’t support City as a kid, but no one would dispute that his feelings for the club are as strong as any of us supporters. Michael Flynn will have even less reason to care, but despite failing to hit the heights last season the way he conducts himself on and off the pitch demonstrates 100% commitment to our cause. Jackson has recently stated he wants to find players who truly want to play for City, and although he wanted to release Flynn he probably has the ideal man to build this vision of a team around.

Disappointingly in recent years, it’s rarely been the case that City players have been bothered enough about playing for the Bantams over another club. Two years ago I personally felt hugely sad that Dean Furman and Nicky Law opted not to sign permanently for City, after successful loan spells. Furman in particular was very popular with supporters, and his reasoning not to stay on at Valley Parade – because he wanted to play at the highest level possible – seemed unfulfilling when he rocked up at Oldham.

Sure it was a division higher, but with crowds at Boundary Park half the size of City it hardly looked a glamorous step up. Instead he could have remained at City, built on his reputation and became a true cult hero at a football club who would be talked about for decades after.

Similarly Law – who was said to have been put off from signing for City by the reduced likelihood of a promotion push that next season (2009/10) – chose Rotherham for the Millers’ greater potential and more lucrative salary. Two years on Law remains in the same division as City – though in fairness he might have been part of Blackpool’s Premier League adventure after Rotherham turned down a bid from the Seasiders 18 months ago – and his career has only minimally progressed.

So what of Donaldson? If you were in his shoes, would you want to re-sign for a club who once rejected you and who seem unlikely to rise up the leagues in the near future, just because it’s your hometown? Would you not want to play in the sizable Ricoh Arena for Coventry against clubs like Birmingham and Cardiff, two divisions higher? Would the no doubt lure of higher wages at Crawley persuade you to move South, talking up how impressed you are by the club’s “ambition”?

There are a number of similarities to City’s chase for Donaldson and the hunt for Michael Boulding three years ago. Boulding had scored 25 goals for a relegated League Two side, and a host of clubs made advances. City, in a much stronger financial position and publically talking up achieving back-to-back promotions, were a leading club in the chase. Boulding signed, but it didn’t work out for a number of reasons. While Boulding argues otherwise, you wonder whether he cared enough about City when the chips were down. Certainly he was too often anonymous in games for my liking.

This time around City, with Donaldson, are somewhere near the back of the queue to sign him. If the decision is taken by the head overruling the heart, the Bantams have no chance. But if the desire to be a hero at the club he grew up supporting – in front of his family and friends – is more important, Donaldson will be coming home.

And for Jackson the pursuit of Donaldson is a no-brainer. Because, if he gets his man, he can be confident Donaldson will be signing for reasons he wants all of his team to personify next season.

There is relief, the season’s over

The Team

Jon McLaughlin | Lewis Hunt, Luke Oliver, Lee Bullock, Robbie Threlfall | Dominic Rowe, Jon Worthington, David Syers, Omar Daley | James Hanson, Jake Speight | Alex Flett, Luke O'Brien

There is so much to trouble the mind and soul related to Bradford City at the moment, but at 3pm Saturday there was a reminder – however unwelcome – of what’s really important.

There is a football match taking place at Valley Parade. Not the most noteworthy game occurring around the country today, but between 3 and 5pm it is the be all and end all for us. Fretting about winning, fretting about the players’ effort levels, fretting about a horrendous scoreline and performance. Today is not a good day, but the weekly soap opera of trying to win football matches is everything that matters. Our purpose. The other stuff just gets in the way.

There is what could be the last ever football match taking place at Valley Parade. It feels strange walking up to and entering the ground, trying to mentally train yourself to appreciate what could be your last proper visit to your second home. Your last time through the turnstiles? Possibly. Your last time walking to your seat? Possibly. If this later proves to be it, maybe not knowing now is for the best. It would be so emotional to be here realising it definitely was for the final time; we would hardly be able to bring ourselves to leave.

There is perspective offered to the current worries by a minute’s silence to remember the Valley Parade fire of 26 years ago, just before kick off. Fitting that the 56 people are remembered if this is the final ever game at Valley Parade, but also a reminder of how reluctant we should be to leave the scene of such tragedy. I was only four years old – and living in Wales – when the fire occurred, so it’s not something I feel I have the right to write about. But as people argue City shouldn’t allow those terrible events to prevent us from moving, it strikes me that – having been so determined to rebuild and return to Valley Parade in the wake of 1985, with such strong emotion involved – giving up our home now because of a squabble with the landlord seems somewhat ill-fitting to the memories of the 56.

There is moaning 11 seconds into the game – surely a new record, even after this last decade. The kick off is messed up by the players, and the outrage at their efforts and level of ability begins in earnest. Still it’s normal, and while not to mine and other’s tastes a reassuring kind of normal. Debating the merits of Jake Speight up front, questioning the suitability of Lee Bullock as centre back. Normal. The kind of discussions and reactions taking place in football grounds up and down the country. As we look set to spend the next few weeks fretting about financial matters, moaning about Omar Daley’s effort levels is a welcome relief.

There is a goal to Crewe inside 12 minutes. City had started the game okay, but then give the ball away in a bad position and Shaun Miller races clean through on goal and past the recalled Jon McLaughlin, before tapping into the net. Crewe, like City, have nothing to play for aside from ensuring departing striker Clayton Donaldson ends the season with the League Two Golden Boot trophy. As the players celebrate, Donaldson – who had already tried a couple of shots from ridiculous angles – looks upset and one of his team-mates has a word. Miller had done the work, but Donaldson, it seemed, wanted his strike partner to allow him to slot the ball home. Great team player.

There is some resistance from City, initially at least. Speight has a drive at goal parried by Rhys Taylor, and a struggling-for-form James Hanson can only fire the loose ball against the angle of post and crossbar. Minutes later Hanson passes up another chance, and his growing army of critics in the stands are fearful in their abuse. “Get back to the Co-op” they yell at last season’s player of the year. Last season’s David Syers, if you will. Once looked upon as a solution, Hanson is now apparently part of the problem.

There is the occasional positive from this dreadful season. Syers harries for possession and plays Speight through on goal. Just as he’s about to pull the trigger he is pushed over by a Crewe defender for a penalty he then converts. The last ever Valley Parade goal by a City player? Possibly. Three goals in five games for Speight now, a decent end to the season. But the real hero was Syers, a player to build next season’s team around.

There is applause at regular intervals. Applause for McLaughlin when he tips over a long-range piledriver. Applause for full debutant Dominic Rowe after cutting inside and hitting a low shot that has to be palmed out by Taylor. Then applause for Crewe’s lethal counter attack from the resultant City corner, which sees Bryon Moore race down the flank and play Miller in to score. Whatever your views on the way we City fans get behind our own, that sporting nature within us to applaud wonderful opposition goals and pieces of play is something we should be proud of. I guess you could say we get plenty of practice.

There is a brilliance about the visitors and how they pass the ball around. Since attending the 2-1 loss at Gresty Road last January, I’ve retained a view that Crewe – on their day – are the best team in League Two. They should have done better than the 10th place they finish, as they rip City apart time and time again. No one is picking up Moore, who is running the game and laying on numerous chances for the dangerous Miller and Donaldson. 90 seconds after going 2-1 up, Donaldson gets that goal he wanted so badly – sealing the Golden Boot. A Bradford lad of course, but this is one piece of sporting excellence we all struggle to share pride in. His 28 goals are one more than City have managed in total at home all season. If only he hadn’t left City at 15. If only.

There is a growing sense of embarrassment. Danny Shelly has a goal ruled out for handball, but then scores legally right on half time with a shot McLaughlin should save. At half time – the last ever half time at Valley Parade? Possibly – the boos ring out and the reception from fans in the Bradford End in particular looks nasty. Part outclassed, part lacking in effort – the players looked beleaguered. They’re not bad people, but as a team too many individuals are unwilling to truly put their bodies on the line and the rest are letting them get away with it.

There is a white flag waved from the home dugout. Peter Jackson addresses the issue of his midfield being overrun by hauling off Hanson and Daley and pushing Alex Flett and Luke O’Brien into midfield, but it’s a negative move aimed only at limiting the damage. City know they are beaten and go through the motions. Only Rowe offers us something to cheer with a series of promising runs at defenders which hint at self-confidence soaring. Flett works hard too, and City become better at retaining the ball. Still, with 45 minutes to go we’re just playing out time.

There is only one more goal, a second for Shelly following a scramble and initial save from McLaughlin. The ball somehow bounces through a crowd of bodies and into the bottom corner. The last ever goal at Valley Parade? Possibly. It’s hardly a moment of beauty, but one that arguably best reflects the 108 years of struggle and under-achievement that Valley Parade has been home to.

There is a mass exodus of people from the ground once the fifth goes in, despite 23 minutes to play. The last 23 minutes of football ever at Valley Parade? Possibly. Anger has been replaced by resignation and black humour, with sarcastic cheers for successful passes and, when City cross the half way line, cries of “shoot”. O’Brien eventually obliges with a shot from the edge of the box; it’s tame and easily held. Someone else gets up to leave, joking to us all “see you at Odsal”. No one laughs.

There is a mixture of almighty groans and laughter when Rowe’s low cross into the box looks perfect for Speight to tap home, only for him to miss the ball and fall over. Before Speight’s backside has smacked the grass, the usually patient family who sit in front of me head for the exit. A odd way for the 2010/11 season to end for them really, watching our £25k striker fall on his arse. You can imagine spending the summer playing it over and over again in your mind. It probably sums up the entire campaign.

There is no pitch invasion at the end, as an army of stewards block every route from the stands to the turf. Even allowing for the pointlessness of previous seasons pitch invasions, it would have been ridiculous for anyone to have wanted to bother. The Crewe players are given a standing ovation by City fans. The ground empties quickly, and a few hundred of us stay for the players’ lap of appreciation. All week on message boards, people like me – who like to clap the players at the end of the season regardless – have been slagged off for being willing to applaud failure. But it’s our choice, and you don’t have to stay. A fear of a protest booing against the players grows as we wait for them to come out, but in the end it seems those sufficiently outraged are already on their way home.

There is a quietness to the lap of appreciation. The players look a little embarrassed, with good reason of course. But the outfits most are wearing offer some symbolism over the failings of others. They’re wearing suits, those damn suits that at the start of the season City were proudly declaring on their own website were a wonderful thing, “In order not to let down Peter (Taylor’s) required standards.” Quick fixes, gimmicky ideas, yesterday’s answers.

Lap of appreciation

Smartly dressed players on their lap of appreciation

There is a dignity to Jackson all afternoon. This is not his team, but they might just have cost him the manager’s job for next season. He is emotional during his two local radio interviews, but passionate about staying. Possibly shown up tactically today, I nevertheless hope he gets the job because he deserves the opportunity to show what he could really do.

There is a relief the season is over. As the players head to the dressing room we take a long lingering look around Valley Parade – our last ever glimpse of this view? Possibly – before heading out into the summer’s night observing City fans shaking hands with Crewe supporters and congratulating them for their brilliant team. Before getting into the car and switching between BBC Radio Leeds and the Pulse talking about the rent problem. Before spending the next few weeks and months anxiously checking for news on City’s future. Before eventually, hopefully, being able to look forward to next season with genuine hope rather than fear.

There is so much we don’t know, but there is one thing I can be sure of. I’m City till I die.

The case for the defence

Peter Taylor takes his Bradford City time into the definitive Christmas period with a string of defensive injuries and a decision to make over Zesh Rehman.

An injury to Rob Kiernan stretched Taylor’s defensive resources seeing the Bantams manager push striker Jason Price into the back four while Rehman – disciplined by the club – sat in the stands.

Simon Ramsden is expected to miss the entire Christmas programme but Steve Williams, Lewis Hunt and Shane Duff could all feature at some point but the City boss has thin ranks for five games in two weeks. Three full backs are fit in Richard Eckersley, Luke O’Brien and Robbie Threlfall and three central defenders in Kiernan, Luke Oliver and – should be be brought back into the fold, the transfer listed Rehman.

Rehman’s possible exit aside Taylor’s squad is enter a period of flux. Keeper Lenny Pidgeley, David Syers, sometimes skipper Lee Hendrie and a host of loan players may all leave the club leaving the 2011 Bradford City that Taylor attempts to push to promotion much different to the late 2010 version.

Hendrie, Syers, who it is believed has attracted interest from up the leagues after his first four months in professional football, and Tom Ademeyi could all leave following the Christmas period and – to strengthen City’s appeal to those players – five good results would no doubt strengthen the Bantam’s case to those they wish to keep. All three players are expected to make a midfield with Tommy Doherty.

There is no indication that James Hanson will leave City although it was thought that Coventry City were watching the striker before they signed Marlon King. Hanson strikes one as the kind of player who will have convinced the entire City crowd on his exit. Like Ron Futcher, Dean Windass and a host of other players before him once Hanson is gone and City return to seeing the ball cleared with some ease when put towards the strikers then Hanson’s critics will see their error.

And formally apologise to the rest of us, just like the people who jeered Dean Windass provoking his exit, and our relegation.

Hanson will line up with Omar Daley in the forward line at Crewe.

Crewe – who are making much of Clayton Donaldson in their forward line – sit two points off the play offs in 9th having come off a 3-3 draw with Stockport last time out.

Dario Grady says that Crewe are looking for new defenders. Aren’t we all?

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