BfB

The World Cup will begin. There are so many reasons to think that this is a very bad idea, and you should listen to all those voices. This is going to talk about what is going to happen in the games.

The difficult thing about predicting a World Cup with groups of four, and third placed teams going through, is the uncertainty of the round of 32 games. A goal from Norway here or there changes the future of the competition dramatically so rather than predicting results, I shall consider trends.

Over performing

Expect a very strong showing from perhaps Afcon winners Senegal which may see them become the first Central African team to make the Semi Final. Pape Thiaw’s squad has an impressive mix of experience while having a lot of very good players in it. Lamine Camara is a name to note, Nicolas Jackson has a chance to emerge.

Portugal’s progress seems to depend on Roberto Martinez’s ability to know how best to use Christiano Ronaldo who has an obnoxious presence on the field for both sides of a match. There is an obvious problem with the forty-one-year-old forward that he rarely presses and puts the effort onto other players, but few people in football have the ability to make a game about themselves as Christiano Ronaldo shows, and when he does he opens the field for a very talented side to perform.

The pervasive wisdom on Christiano Ronaldo is that Portugal would be a better team without him, and that might be true in terms of a floor of performance, but such analysis ignores the ceiling he gives them. Using him correctly is the key to Portugal’s progress.

Türkiye are impressive but will probably find their progress halted by Spain in a quarter-final which is a shame for a team that seems to grow in ability more than it does belief. Manager Vincenzo Montella does not seem like that man to change that. Kenan Yildiz and Arda Güler are players who deserve a big stage.

Mexico and Morocco also have quarter-final match ups with European nations in England and France respectively which will abort their progress. The Mexicans have a lot to suggest themselves as one of the better put together teams in the tournament but will come up short when their attack meets a serious defence. Morocco’s semi-final appearance would question if a quarter-final exit to France is an over performance. They continue to make a lot of the players available to them, but France will prove too good.

As Expected

The Spanish are predictability good, as are England and should both repeat the final of Euro 2024 in New Jersey then one might not be surprised by that. Spain struggle to find attacking options with both Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams carrying injuries into the World Cup and have a mess of good midfielders which they should be able to perm a great team from. England seem to have stumbled into a World Cup with the most on form centre forward in the world in Harry Kane and so many players to crash into the box around him that Jude Bellingham is an option. There are embarrassments of riches here.

Germany are not expected to excel and probably will edge out of the group before returning home as will the Netherlands. The United States will get out of the group and then misfire, perhaps to Belgium, who will also put in a typical performance of rolling until they meet a team with a more vigour than they do.

The Swiss can expect a round of sixteen finish, as can Croatia and Korea.

Underwhelming

Expectations of Argentina are high, but they age and while they will go deep into the tournament, a repeat of 2022’s win seems very unlikely. Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil have little to recommend them as a team to have high expectations of, but they are Brazil, and while they might expect more, I see a quarter-final exit.

Japan will fall foul of their inability to get through knock out football – something of a psychological block at this point – reemerge probably against Brazil in the round of 32 while Egypt could end up looking at an exit in a similar position as a missed opportunity.

Also, Scotland and Haiti both could expect more but a group with Brazil and Morocco sucking up points while they cancel each other out might see both go home in the group stages, which is a shame. Tunisia and Sweden may find similar reason to curse each other in Group F.

Colombia are not very good but will expect to get past DR Congo and Uzbekistan, but probably will not.

Last Four

I am imagining a last four of England, Spain, Portugal and Senegal but France may displace England and Türkiye may Spain. A Türkiye v Senegal semi-final would be a lot of fun and produce an interesting finalist, while Portugal may find their chances curtailed meeting Argentina in the quarter-final. Whomsoever wins in bracket of Portugal, Argentina, England and France will probably be World Cup winners.

Or it could be Spain.